I was completely wrong about the continuance of innovation in the tech sector

(written by lawrence krubner, however indented passages are often quotes). You can contact lawrence at: lawrence@krubner.com, or follow me on Twitter.

Back in 2010 I wrote “Excessive praise marks corporate peaks” and I was taking aim at Facebook. I wrote:

Circa 1991/1992 there were articles about how Japan was taking over the world and nothing could ever compete with them because they were relentless. But the early 90s marked the beginning of global retreat for many Japanese companies (with a few exceptions, like Toyota).

In the late 90s nothing could stop Microsoft, yet the late 90s marked the beginning of the era when Microsoft’s momentum began to fade.

Somewhere around 2006/2007 Google was the most perfect collection of human beings that had ever thought to work together and nothing anywhere, ever, would ever be able to even conceive of an idea that could compete with Google.

In 2010 Facebook is an unstoppable juggernaut and nothing will ever be able to match the unbelievable genius that runs this organization.

In 2014, we will be told, MingaMingaYXZ corp is run not by mortals like you and me, but by people so inhumanly smart they must really be gods that have temporarily taken human form.

I didn’t realize that the tech sector was about to consolidate. After several decades of constant churn, it seemed likely that the churn would continue. I was amazed, and disappointed, to see the Internet consolidate down to Google, Apple, Facebook, Netflix, and Twitter. It is horrifying. I made the assumption that cool new businesses would continue to emerge, but clearly the process has slowed down a great deal.

Having said that, churn tends to come with recessions, so this long expansion is slowing the process of churn. In a few months, this will be the longest expansion in history. It’s length has helped foster stability. It is possible there will be a shakeup when the next recession hits. But I clearly misunderstood how slow the pace of new arrivals was going to be.