There is a 100% chance that I’m wrong about something
(written by Lawrence Krubner, however indented passages are often quotes)
I’m sure I’m wrong about something, I just don’t know what it is yet. Likewise, you, too, are probably wrong about something. Maybe you will some day find out what it is. Maybe not. Some errors last for decades.
Megan McArdle suggests something similar, though she is focused a slightly different angle:
SourceChances are 100% that you hold some belief which will subsequently prove to be a case of mass confirmation bias–people unconsciously cherry picking evidence which validates what they expected to find. Unfortunately, it will probably take several decades for us to realize this, at which point, we will replace it with some other socially convenient belief.
May 17, 2012 2:06 am
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